SARS出现了，它出现的原因仅仅是病毒的突变吗，它为何在2002年出现；它为何在中国首先被发现感染；它为何首先在人的肺部突破；除了我们论述的癌症、爱滋病等目前的绝症的根本原因以外，这种有强烈传染特性的快速制人于死地的，目前无特效药物的病的产生的根本原因又是什麽？
（下面我要说明的是：每一项人类广泛使用的重要科技甚至代步的汽车，都使得人类的机軆相反的向退化前进一步，如针对免疫系统退化的疫苗的发明是否是抵抗退化的新科技？是否又形成新一轮的…：作者注于2020年）
在深入分析前，为了深入浅出，我们回顾一下前三十章的有关论点：
“人类离微生物越远，就离灭亡越近──人们自觉不自觉地离微生物越来越远，因此人类不靠 科学技术，而靠自身的免疫系统来单独地战胜对人类有害的微生物的能力却越来越丧失。”（问题四 ）
“鉴于这些发明对人类曾做成如此巨大的贡献，我们本来不忍作如下的比喻，但遗憾的这是客观存在的事实：如果把抗菌素的发明对人类免疫系统的弱化的影响比喻为瀑布的落差；就可以把显微镜的发明比喻为降低一个大台阶；那麽还可以把冰柜的发明比喻为降低一个小台阶。因为，冰柜的发明使人类的食物中的微生物繁殖大减，使人类在食物方面接触细菌的机会大为减少。”（问题九 ）
“ 如果到一天，人类的免疫系统终于崩溃，人类在等待灭亡，这时我们回想起来，分析免疫系统这艘巨轮的沉没的原因，将会证明如下的结论：如果抗菌素的使用是压沉免疫系统的一块巨石；那麽，火的使用，显微镜的使用，消毒剂的使用都是压沉它的一块又一块的石头。这艘巨轮沉没的历史就是人类离开微生物越来越远的历史。
不要因为抗菌素的发明，火的使用，显微镜的发明是多麽的伟大，而就不承认上面的看来是残酷的真理，要看到这些发明的副作用——人类由于远离微生物而使免疫系统出现不可避免的退化，本文称它为惰性退化。它区别于单指免疫系统赖药性退化，这种退化的原因比赖药性退化的原因更广泛，不仅由于使用药物，而且由于各种远离和隔绝人类与细菌的接触，使免疫系统得不到锻炼而退化。人类的免疫系统的退化，不是从抗菌素的使用开始，而是从使用火的时代就逐渐开始。只有发现它，承认它，自觉地弥补它，才能让人类更美好。(问题四 )
“为了更形象的说明这一问题，我们用下面一种比喻。如果把生物的免疫系统比喻成一艘大船，那麽不同科属的动物的免疫系统是一艘艘不同的船。而船弦边的侧量水深度的尺度，就是免疫系统的强度标准。通过评定和比较，我们就会知道各种不同类型的生物的免疫系统的强度，哪一艘船面临着沉没的危险。人类整体的免疫系统处在一个什麽样的水准上。每一个人处在什麽水准上。也许某一个人的免疫系统很坚强，对癌症和艾滋病有着天生的免疫力；也许某一个人的免疫系统已降到安全标准以下，已经在患病过程中；也许某一个人的免疫系统已处在被损毁的边际，吃一次过量的黄曲霉素，吃一剂化学药品就能成为压成这艘免疫系统巨轮的最后一块石头。”（问题五 ）
以上的论述主要阐明了一个观点——人类在发明工具并产生三次社会大分工的同时，不管这些由于科学技术的发展所发明的工具多麽伟大，曾经挽救了多少人类的生命（如火的使用、抗菌素的发明、以及显微镜、各种药物各种医疗技术包括免疫疫苗和助产术…….）一个重要的客观事实是——引起了人类的免疫系统和身体功能产生两种退化，一种是赖药性退化，另一种是依赖性退化。两种退化的原因归根结底都是人类在使用自己创造的工具的同时在退化本体自身的功能，我们统称它为人类免疫系统和身体功能的惰性退化。
另外，在以上论述中我们把这种退化形象的比喻为一艘逐步被石头压沉的巨轮。我们把这一巨轮主要比喻为人类的免疫系统。
这章节我们本想用“SARS和沉船论”这样的标题，后来觉得沉船论太悲观了，我们理论的实质应是“SARS和防止沉船论”
人类在漫长的历史中，由于技术、高科技的发展，由于对工具（广义工具包括药物和医疗技术以及各种产品、技术和人为系统）的逐步广泛使用，特别是和人体自身相关的技术和工具的发展，人类的身体功能尤其是免疫系统的功能产生了依赖性退化和赖药性退化——即产生了整个人类意义上的平均统一的系统功能的惰性退化。这是不以人的意志转移的客观现象。
我们把这些一个个技术和工具的使用当成压低这艘巨轮的吃水线的一块块大小不一的石头；我们把各种抗菌素、免疫疫苗，各种医学技术和科学技术的发展看成是增高巨轮四周船舷的一块块材料。这里出现的问题是：
1、人类功能对一个个科学技术的依赖的过程如同一块块石头压低轮船吃水线的过程，但，这里的特点是整艘巨轮同时往下沉沦；
2、人类运用科学技术对自身功能弱化的填补，类似一次次的加高四周船舷的修补，但，这里的特点则是东一块西一块的不均衡增高，容易造成了可能左舷加高但右舷漫水的不对称性，从而造成整船倾覆的危险；
3、 有了以上的基础，我们现在可以看看为什麽SARS出现了，而且出现在人类当今经济发展最快的地区——既不是卫生条件最落后的地区，也不是经济和制度最先进的地区。但它的危害却是全人类的，因为全人类的免疫系统的退化水准是基本一致的，虽然些微小差别，但是落后地区人的免疫系统的惰性退化稍微少些，但科学技术和防治体系差些；先进地区人的免疫系统的惰性退化稍微多些，但科学技术和防治系统健全些。
SARS在地球目前经济和社会发展最快的地区中国首先发现，并在全球蔓延，其产生的原因是复杂的、是历史的、是综合的：
1、由于人类总体的科学技术和广义工具使用的历史发展，由于人类身体的功能，特别是免疫系统在这个发展中出现的依赖性退化和赖药性退化——即综合性的惰性退化。从人类整体讲，在当今的一长段历史时期，人类免疫系统已经到了快被其他生物体内的微生物突破的临界点。癌症、爱滋病的出现是一个警讯和标志，SARS的出现是更急迫的警讯和指标。如果人类还不警惕这种人类自身功能的综合性惰性退化，是更为危险的事情。SARS不仅对发现的国家有威胁，而是对全人类有同样的威胁。
2、人类的身体系统会在那一个部分被首先突破（在那一方位的船舷漫水）而造成巨轮的倾覆？我们认为，会在人体中惰性退化最大的部分被首先突破。这些部分主要是人们最相应保护的部分；医疗技术最关爱的部分；与外界交换物质最密切的部分。人类的性器官、消化器官和呼吸器官首当其中，将来会涉及血液循环器官、信息器官。
3、SARS这类高传染性高死亡率的病症迅速传染，并不特定在最先进地区——人的免疫系统由于医疗条件优越而较多退化的地区。也不特定在最落后地区——是医疗条件最差但对免疫系统破坏较少的地区。它会容易出现在人们内在的免疫系统的降低超过了外在的防护系统保护的提高，这两者相对失衡的地区。（外在防护系统包括抗菌素、医疗条件、防治研究条件、预警和病毒的传染防火墻隔离阻断系统、新闻监督和政府动员和行政机制系统、经济和社会发展的按比例的调节体系。）
4、中国的广东首先发现SARS，中国的香港是重感染区。这些不能完全看作是偶然的。广东是近一二十年来全世界经济发展最快的地区，证明这个地区在这个阶段生产关系是最适合经济发展的，但在大发展中很难避免出现新的不平衡。如上所述的在医疗、防治、预警、隔离和市场管理等公共卫生体系包括涉及上层建筑方面的相关的改进方面的投资的失衡。另外，中国相较发达国家，中国在抗菌素的供应和使用方面的过于自由，以及广东食用各种动物的习惯，各种性病的蔓延和滥用顶级抗菌素的民风，这是造成全民免疫系统弱化和极其容易被变异病毒致死的根本原因。
关于预警系统，我们最近看到一则资料，据说，美国曾经在一个军官身上发现一种新的危害大的基因突变的传染病毒，由于发现早隔离早，死亡人数仅一人，就是这名军官。但这种病毒毕竟不是SARS。SARS如果出现在美国，是否也能控制好，没有答案，因为毕竟历史没有这样去写。
(2019年美国的流感据说已死亡8千多人，但美国并未进入紧急状态，有人质疑是掩盖，也有人认为是因为流感有药可医-作者注)
香港的生活和饮食习惯和广东相同，香港虽然有良好的医疗体系，但被人们的免疫系统更多的退化和人口更密集的居住和流动所抵消。现在农村和幼儿感染少，除了外部原因之外，是否能部分的证明上述观点——即农村人口和孩子由于吃药少和吃药历史短而免疫系统破坏小，又由于小病多而免疫系统锻炼多,因而对SARS有一定抵抗能力。
以上的分析，是力图从人类和人类社会本身来分析SARS产生的根源。如果要让人类这艘巨轮破浪远航而不沉没，我们不仅要尽可能的均衡的增高四周的船舷，均衡地发展科学技术和支撑这个发展的社会体系，更要注意到一个客观事实，任何一个重要的科学技术的发展都会有负面的效应，任何一个新的广义上的工具的使用，都会造成新一轮的人体的惰性退化，这些都是准备压沈这艘巨轮的石头。重要的是我们要研究从巨轮中拿出一些石头来。SARS的出现促进我们加快这样的研究。在今后的章节里我们将着重论述这些问题的题解。人类这艘巨轮应是宇宙间最伟大的巨轮之一，只要能正确认识和运用规律，我们完全能避免“泰坦尼克”式的悲剧。
所有的真理在被发现后都易于理解，问题是要发现它。
伽利略
（上文摘录于《相反论》后记 ：“SARS 与 船论”。 由于SARS的出现，《相反论》提前出版于2003年4月27日。 同时发表英文版，便于在英文网络转载）
Discussion on the root cause of human more and more frequent malignant infectious diseases
SARS AND THEORY-SHIP
<The theory of contrary> —— Postscript
SARS’ appearance advances the date we plan to publish <The theory of contrary > and the first question of second part of natural science. The date was April 27, 2003.
This article is the first chapter of “PART II” of our theory. Meanwhile, we publish it as the postscript of “PART I” for our readers.
Do you think of the reason of SARS’ appearance is only virus mutation? Why does it arise in year 2002? Why does the first SARS case be found in China? Why does it infect lungs first? Beside the reasons for other deadly diseases such as AIDS or cancer, what is the reason that causes SARS, which has stronger infectiousness and no effective cure?
Here’s what I’m saying: Every important technology widely used by humans, even cars, All make the human body move forward in the opposite direction, For example, is the invention of a vaccine against the inert degeneration of the immune system a new technology to combat inert degeneration? Whether a new round is formed…（Author’s note in 2020）
Let’s recall what we discussed in the front 30 chapters.
“Unconsciously, human beings are gradually drifting far away from microorganism. As a result, human immune system fails to fight against pernicious microorganism without the help of science and technology. Human immune system is weaker day and day.” (Question 4)
“Forgive me to have the following metaphor. If we consider antibiotics effect on weakening the human immune system as a waterfall level drop, then equally the effect of microscope should be treated as a large step. Even we can think of the effect of refrigerator as a small step because it prevents persons from touching too much microorganism remaining in not-fresh food.” (Question 9)
“When human immune system ship sinks one day, people will notice that each time using fire, microscope and disinfectants were rocks added onto this ship. The result is the inch by inch sinking of the ship. Maybe antibiotics will be the last rock to be added onto this ship. The process of ship sinking is a history that human beings are gradually moving away from microorganism.”
“We have to accept this situation that great inventions give us great side effects. Because of being away from microorganism, human immune system begins to degenerate. We call it inert degeneration, which is different from medicines-dependent degeneration. Keeping away bacterium causes human inactive degeneration. But this degeneration began as early as people have already known how to use fire. What can we do is to search how to remedy.” (Question 4)
“Let me have a metaphor to explain more clearly. The immune system of organism is a large ship, and each animal stands for a small single ship. The graduation on vessel’s side to measure depth is the measure of the immune system. Easily, we are able to be aware of which ship is going to sink and who is going to be risk in danger. Maybe someone has enough power to fight with Cancer or AIDS, while someone whose coefficient of immune system is below standard is suffering illness. Each time’s taking antibiotic is probably to break his/her immune system just like the last rock to be added onto the ship.” (Question 5)
Above paragraphs give us one idea: even if our greatest inventions save so many lives (for example: fire, antibiotic, microscope, and vaccines), an objective fact is that— these cause human immune system degenerations, medicine-dependent degeneration and dependent degeneration. Human beings degenerate part of their body functions while they use their own inventions. So we also call these degenerations as inert degeneration of human immune system and body function. Human immune system is a ship and because of immune system degeneration, it appears to be sinking.
The title of this article was “SARS and theory of ship-sink”. But it’s too pessimistic. In fact, what we advocate is “SARS and the theory of preventing ship-sink”.
In human history, human body function and immune system have been degenerated in different extent because of high technology development and the wide utility of new tools. These cause medicines-dependent degeneration and dependent degeneration. The total standard of human immune has been degenerated. This situation exists subjectively.
These tools and technology can be regarded as small rocks added onto the ship to cause ship to sink. Also various medical skills such as antibiotic and vaccine Is a piece of material that raises the ship ’s sides
The problem here is:
1. Human beings believe in science technology. This phenomenon seems like we add extra small rocks onto the human immune ship. The whole ship is sinking.
2. Science technology results in human immune system degeneration. It seems like crews heighten vessel’s sides unbalanced. Probably right side is higher than left side so that seawater Thus causing the whole ship to capsize .
3. Based on above discussion, we know the reason that SARS arose in the area where economic development is rapid, not an area where it has the best economic and social system. This calamity spread to the whole world because human immune has the same standard. The difference is people who live in less-developed areas have less dependent degeneration, but people who live in most developed have more dependent degeneration.
SARS was first discovered in China, the world’s most economically and socially developed region, and spread around the world. Its causes are complex, historical and comprehensive.
2. At what part of the human system would the first break and cause the ship to capsize? We believe that the most inert parts of the human body will be the first to break through. These parts are mainly the most correspondingly protected parts of people; The most caring part of medical technology; The part closest to exchanging material with the outside world. The human sexual organs, digestive organs and respiratory organs are the first among them, which will involve blood circulation organs and information organs in the future
3.The high SARS disease death rate will not only occur in developed areas, but also the area where too much protection for human life causes human immune system degeneration. Also SARS will not only arise in undeveloped areas , But it’s sure that this kind of disease will arise in the area where the decrease of human immune system is greater than increase of outside protections. They include the areas are antibiotics, medical condition, research condition, early warning, the system for segregating virus infection, media supervision and not good balance between economic and social development.
4. The first SARS case was found in Guangdong, China. The most serious infection area is Hong Kong, China. These aren’t fortuitous. Guangdong is the fastest economic growth area of the world in this past decades. The productive relationship of this area is fit to productivity development. Fast development creates new unbalances in many aspects such as medical condition, prevention, early warning and health. Also it includes superstructures in related with unbalanced investments. China doesn’t have an efficient way to control and limit antibiotic use as well as prohibiting people eating wild animals. This situation causes many diseases. This is the root cause of the weakened immune system and the extreme vulnerability to death by mutated viruses.
And about early warning, we get recent news. It’s said that an American officer was suspected to get infective virus caused by gene mutation. By the early segregation and efficient control, it only caused one person died. It was the officer himself. But this virus isn’t SARS. We don’t know whether Americans can control SARS if the first SARS arrives to USA.
(the flu in the U.S. in 2019 is said to have killed more than 8,000 people, but the U.S. is not in a state of emergency, with some questioning a cover-up and others suggesting it has a cure.)
Hong Kong has the same living style with Guangdong. Although Hong Kong has better medical skills, it still fails to cover human immune system degeneration and dense population. Less rural population and young kids suffer SARS. Beside the outside reasons, it proves our opinion more or less. Rural population and young kids have stronger immune system because they take less medicines. Above analysis is based on human beings themselves or human bodies to search the roof of SARS. If we want to prevent human ship sinking, we have to develop science technology in balance to support our social system and also need to pay more attention on how to reduce side-effects caused by high technology development and any new tool inventions. All of there are rocks added onto the ship, and will lead to human immune system degeneration. It’s more important to take the search to stop adding rocks any more. SARS pushes us to accelerate our steps. In following chapters, we will discuss more these important problems. What we should do is to realize and use these rules. And we will avoid the “Titanic” tragedy.
All truths are easy to understand once they are discovered; the point is to discover them.
Galileo Galilei
(作者：洛杉l矶国际人类学恊会前主席 丛培欣
CONG, PEIXIN : The Former Chairman of The International Anthropology Association
E-mail:rethinknet@hotmail.com）